Bladex Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
26.40%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
27.15%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
29.24%
increased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0419 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1228 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8282 | 48.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0034 | 0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0601 | 0.55 |
| γ3 | -0.1556 | -2.41** |
| γ4 | 0.1737 | 3.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.1693 | -3.48*** |
| γ6 | 0.1691 | 3.53*** |
| γ7 | -0.1232 | -2.72*** |
| γ8 | 0.0532 | 1.16 |
| γ9 | -0.0130 | -0.33 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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