V-Lab
Bladex Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.76%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
25.69%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
28.24%
increased by 3.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0439 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1232 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8274 | 48.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0042 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0590 | 0.54 |
| γ3 | -0.1552 | -2.41** |
| γ4 | 0.1738 | 3.53*** |
| γ5 | -0.1695 | -3.50*** |
| γ6 | 0.1692 | 3.54*** |
| γ7 | -0.1229 | -2.71*** |
| γ8 | 0.0523 | 1.15 |
| γ9 | -0.0120 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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