Jaguar Uranium Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
72.96%
increased by 22.50%
1 Week
77.22%
increased by 26.76%
1 Month
80.27%
increased by 29.81%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1597 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.6011 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.0510 | 0.90 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 4.0260 | 4.92*** |
0.652
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1597 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6011 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0510 | 0.90 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 4.0260 | 4.92*** |
Persistence:
0.652
Half-life:
2 days
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