V-Lab
Jaguar Uranium Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
43.45%
decreased by 5.99%
1 Week
44.30%
decreased by 5.14%
1 Month
44.61%
decreased by 4.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4362 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.3260 | 1.54 |
| βGARCH | 0.0616 | 0.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -4.9644 | -1.27 |
0.388
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4362 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3260 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0616 | 0.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -4.9644 | -1.27 |
Persistence:
0.388
Half-life:
1 days
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