Jaguar Uranium Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
44.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
57.40%
increased by 12.70%
1 Month
64.52%
increased by 19.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0816 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5698 | 2.00** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0474 | 0.76 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -22.5778 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.617
Half-life:
1 days
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