General Electric Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
38.67%
increased by 2.13%
1 Week
38.84%
increased by 2.30%
1 Month
39.39%
increased by 2.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8168 | 7.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0722 | 6.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8904 | 53.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0296 | 1.40 |
| γ2 | 0.0058 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1395 | -4.60*** |
| γ4 | 0.2246 | 8.11*** |
| γ5 | -0.2357 | -9.04*** |
| γ6 | 0.2436 | 7.56*** |
| γ7 | -0.2356 | -6.29*** |
| γ8 | 0.1819 | 3.74*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8168 | 7.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8904 | 53.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0296 | 1.40 |
| γ2 | 0.0058 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1395 | -4.60*** |
| γ4 | 0.2246 | 8.11*** |
| γ5 | -0.2357 | -9.04*** |
| γ6 | 0.2436 | 7.56*** |
| γ7 | -0.2356 | -6.29*** |
| γ8 | 0.1819 | 3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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