V-Lab
General Electric Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
28.83%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
29.00%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
29.53%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8209 | 7.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0710 | 6.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8940 | 57.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0327 | 1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.1351 | -4.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.2204 | 7.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.2296 | -8.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.2304 | 7.05*** |
| γ7 | -0.2062 | -6.04*** |
| γ8 | 0.1104 | 4.34*** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8209 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0710 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8940 | 57.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0327 | 1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.1351 | -4.27*** |
| γ4 | 0.2204 | 7.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.2296 | -8.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.2304 | 7.05*** |
| γ7 | -0.2062 | -6.04*** |
| γ8 | 0.1104 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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