General Electric Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
23.68%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
25.39%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8224 | 7.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0703 | 6.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8956 | 59.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0324 | 1.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0006 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.1342 | -4.21*** |
| γ4 | 0.2181 | 7.51*** |
| γ5 | -0.2258 | -8.29*** |
| γ6 | 0.2271 | 6.99*** |
| γ7 | -0.2068 | -6.09*** |
| γ8 | 0.1138 | 4.46*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8224 | 7.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0703 | 6.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8956 | 59.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0324 | 1.47 |
| γ2 | 0.0006 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.1342 | -4.21*** |
| γ4 | 0.2181 | 7.51*** |
| γ5 | -0.2258 | -8.29*** |
| γ6 | 0.2271 | 6.99*** |
| γ7 | -0.2068 | -6.09*** |
| γ8 | 0.1138 | 4.46*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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