V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
29.99%
increased by 3.59%
1 Week
29.95%
increased by 3.55%
1 Month
29.85%
increased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9931 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0797 | 7.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8506 | 46.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0020 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0826 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.1989 | -6.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.1927 | 7.16*** |
| γ5 | -0.1219 | -3.60*** |
| γ6 | 0.1206 | 2.67*** |
| γ7 | -0.1510 | -2.89*** |
| γ8 | 0.1291 | 2.65*** |
| γ9 | -0.0690 | -2.16** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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