V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.17%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
28.40%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
28.99%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0008 | 8.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 46.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0794 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | -0.1936 | -6.36*** |
| γ4 | 0.1882 | 7.01*** |
| γ5 | -0.1186 | -3.63*** |
| γ6 | 0.1167 | 2.66*** |
| γ7 | -0.1479 | -2.88*** |
| γ8 | 0.1294 | 2.68*** |
| γ9 | -0.0710 | -2.26** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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