V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
29.18%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
29.29%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
29.58%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0191 | 8.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 46.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0810 | 1.61 |
| γ3 | -0.1975 | -6.51*** |
| γ4 | 0.1910 | 7.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.1197 | -3.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.1166 | 2.67*** |
| γ7 | -0.1481 | -2.90*** |
| γ8 | 0.1307 | 2.73*** |
| γ9 | -0.0726 | -2.33** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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