Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
29.83%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
29.78%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
29.65%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0039 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8455 | 45.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -0.09 |
| γ2 | 0.0835 | 1.64 |
| γ3 | -0.1972 | -6.52*** |
| γ4 | 0.1901 | 7.08*** |
| γ5 | -0.1194 | -3.57*** |
| γ6 | 0.1169 | 2.61*** |
| γ7 | -0.1466 | -2.82*** |
| γ8 | 0.1260 | 2.60*** |
| γ9 | -0.0676 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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