Bristol-Myers Squibb Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.67%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
26.72%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
26.89%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0679 | 4.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0393 | 3.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9141 | 74.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.0490 | 2.53** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0679 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0393 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 74.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0490 | 2.53** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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