V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.89%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
32.84%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
32.63%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 137% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 137% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0209 | 2.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0273 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9476 | 119.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.0372 | 2.56** |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 2.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9476 | 119.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0372 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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