V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
29.55%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
29.53%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
29.47%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 135% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 135% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0210 | 2.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0274 | 4.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9475 | 119.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0369 | 2.55** |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 119.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0369 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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