V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.71%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
23.79%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
24.06%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 137% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0238 | 11.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0297 | 17.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9424 | 448.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0407 | 10.20*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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