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Wal-Mart Stores Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

29.55%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

29.53%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

29.47%

decreased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 135% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 135% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0210
2.77***
αARCH0.0274
4.10***
βGARCH0.9475
119.62***
γleverage0.0369
2.55**

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0274
4.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9475
119.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0369
2.55**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days