V-Lab
Sable Offshore Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
128.76%
decreased by 3.51%
1 Week
128.76%
decreased by 3.51%
1 Month
128.76%
decreased by 3.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 205.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0098 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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