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V-Lab

Sable Offshore Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

126.25%

decreased by 16.76%

1 Week

161.01%

increased by 18.00%

1 Month

411.31%

increased by 268.30%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sable Offshore Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 25, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 57% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4666
11.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4775
21.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1687
-2.45**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0056
3.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2096
20.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7904
94.74***

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days