V-Lab
Sable Offshore Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
126.25%
1 Week
161.01%
1 Month
411.31%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 57% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4666 | 11.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4775 | 21.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1687 | -2.45** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0056 | 3.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2096 | 20.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7904 | 94.74*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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