Sable Offshore Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
182.17%
decreased by 32.82%
1 Week
248.62%
increased by 33.63%
1 Month
993.41%
increased by 778.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4603 | 7.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4679 | 18.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0044 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0089 | 3.64*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1796 | 18.14*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8204 | 70.96*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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