V-Lab
Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
712.75%
increased by 17.72%
1 Week
777.97%
increased by 82.94%
1 Month
837.35%
increased by 142.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0449 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2309 | 5.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1794 | 3.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7243 | 0.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6979 | 0.56 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3021 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.365
Half-life:
1 days
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