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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

771.55%

decreased by 14.50%

1 Week

847.96%

increased by 61.91%

1 Month

947.96%

increased by 161.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0337
3.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2502
5.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1832
3.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7751
0.25
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7492
0.53
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2508
0.16

Persistence:

0.375

Half-life:

1 days