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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

712.75%

increased by 17.72%

1 Week

777.97%

increased by 82.94%

1 Month

837.35%

increased by 142.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 400% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0449
3.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2309
5.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1794
3.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7243
0.26
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6979
0.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3021
0.22

Persistence:

0.365

Half-life:

1 days