V-Lab
Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
771.55%
decreased by 14.50%
1 Week
847.96%
increased by 61.91%
1 Month
947.96%
increased by 161.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0337 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2502 | 5.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1832 | 3.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7751 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7492 | 0.53 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2508 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.375
Half-life:
1 days
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