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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

706.03%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Week

779.51%

increased by 71.82%

1 Month

848.45%

increased by 140.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0438
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2334
5.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1796
3.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7293
0.26
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7030
0.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2970
0.21

Persistence:

0.367

Half-life:

1 days