V-Lab
Trinseo PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
706.03%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
779.51%
increased by 71.82%
1 Month
848.45%
increased by 140.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2334 | 5.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1796 | 3.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7293 | 0.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7030 | 0.56 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2970 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.367
Half-life:
1 days
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