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V-Lab

Trinseo PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

785.27%

decreased by 10.51%

1 Week

785.29%

decreased by 10.49%

1 Month

785.35%

decreased by 10.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Trinseo PLC GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 138% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0513
3.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0254
8.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9571
240.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0350
5.33***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days