Alphabet Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.95%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
26.23%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
27.18%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0990 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.0338 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9205 | 49.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.0400 | 1.61 |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0990 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0338 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9205 | 49.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0400 | 1.61 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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