AT&T Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
45.56%
increased by 24.06%
1 Week
45.29%
increased by 23.79%
1 Month
44.26%
increased by 22.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:14 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0234 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.0382 | 4.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9410 | 143.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0241 | 1.58 |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0382 | 4.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9410 | 143.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0241 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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