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AT&T Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

26.47%

increased by 0.74%

1 Week

26.48%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

26.52%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of AT&T Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 daysv = 5.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9044
1.11
αARCH0.0692
8.45***
βGARCH0.9912
124.14***
νDF5.7443
2.09**

0.991

Persistence

78d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9044
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0692
8.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9912
124.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7443
2.09**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days