V-Lab
AT&T Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.47%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
26.48%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
26.52%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 daysv = 5.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9044 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0692 | 8.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9912 | 124.14*** |
| νDF | 5.7443 | 2.09** |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9044 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0692 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9912 | 124.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7443 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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