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PepsiCo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

26.00%

increased by 1.68%

1 Week

26.00%

increased by 1.68%

1 Month

25.97%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PepsiCo Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~128 daysv = 6.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.5729
1.00
αscore0.0682
10.92***
βpersistence0.9946
184.08***
νDF6.2633
2.34**

0.995

Persistence

128d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.5729
1.00
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0682
10.92***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9946
184.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2633
2.34**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

128 days