V-Lab
PepsiCo Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
1 Week
17.68%
1 Month
18.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3905 | 0.98 |
| αARCH | 0.0653 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9940 | 163.41*** |
| νDF | 5.8390 | 2.35** |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3905 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 163.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8390 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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