V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
107.69%
1 Week
107.64%
1 Month
107.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 24.4221 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.0411 | 18.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,260.18*** |
| νDF | 4.2012 | 13.02*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.4221 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0411 | 18.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,260.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2012 | 13.02*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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