V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
78.96%
decreased by 2.51%
1 Week
82.10%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
85.52%
increased by 4.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2914 | 8.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1488 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6136 | 12.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.0098 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | -0.0515 | -1.10 |
| γ4 | 0.1663 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.1425 | -2.76*** |
| γ6 | 0.0121 | 0.20 |
| γ7 | 0.1021 | 1.62 |
| γ8 | -0.1591 | -1.80* |
| γ9 | 0.1962 | 1.92* |
| γ10 | -0.1921 | -2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.762
Half-life:
3 days
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