V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
81.92%
decreased by 2.52%
1 Week
85.12%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
88.83%
increased by 4.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2748 | 8.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1494 | 4.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6274 | 12.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | -0.0082 | -0.12 |
| γ3 | -0.0483 | -1.02 |
| γ4 | 0.1653 | 3.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.1500 | -2.86*** |
| γ6 | 0.0287 | 0.46 |
| γ7 | 0.0641 | 1.05 |
| γ8 | -0.0826 | -1.32 |
| γ9 | 0.1114 | 1.52 |
| γ10 | -0.1468 | -2.60*** |
0.777
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2748 | 8.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1494 | 4.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6274 | 12.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0030 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | -0.0082 | -0.12 |
| γ3 | -0.0483 | -1.02 |
| γ4 | 0.1653 | 3.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.1500 | -2.86*** |
| γ6 | 0.0287 | 0.46 |
| γ7 | 0.0641 | 1.05 |
| γ8 | -0.0826 | -1.32 |
| γ9 | 0.1114 | 1.52 |
| γ10 | -0.1468 | -2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.777
Half-life:
3 days
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