V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
82.33%
decreased by 2.60%
1 Week
85.23%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
89.60%
increased by 4.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1356 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6439 | 12.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0151 | 0.46 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0102 | 1.24 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0131 | 3.78*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9861 | 259.71*** |
0.787
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1356 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6439 | 12.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0151 | 0.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0102 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0131 | 3.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9861 | 259.71*** |
Persistence:
0.787
Half-life:
3 days
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