Hain Celestial Group Inc/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
179.85%
1 Week
179.76%
1 Month
179.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1192 trading days (~4.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0151 | 3.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9817 | 337.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.0053 | 0.98 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1656 | 0.82 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9929 | 61.34*** |
0.999
Persistence1192d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0151 | 3.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9817 | 337.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0053 | 0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1656 | 0.82 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9929 | 61.34*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1192 days
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