V-Lab
BARK Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
73.13%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
74.21%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
75.50%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 2.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7084 | 15.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0368 | -1.90* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.0570 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0068 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9466 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.755
Half-life:
2 days
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