CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0682	1.86*
βGARCH	0.6961	6.15***
γleverage	-0.0340	-0.90
λ₁tau intercept	1.0524	0.11
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0062	0.11
λ₃tau persistence	0.9474	1.99**

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0682	1.86*
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6961	6.15***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0340	-0.90
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	1.0524	0.11
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0062	0.11
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9474	1.99**

V-Lab

BARK Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other BARK Inc Analyses