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Hallmark Financial Services Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

8,795.68%

increased by 8,292.44%

1 Week

6,487.48%

increased by 5,984.24%

1 Month

3,731.98%

increased by 3,228.74%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0723
1.39
βGARCH0.5176
3.55***
γleverage0.0144
0.28
λ₁tau intercept0.6941
1.30
λ₂forecast adj.1.0000
6.85***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.597

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0723
1.39
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5176
3.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0144
0.28
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6941
1.30
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
6.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.597

Half-life:

1 days