V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
8,795.68%
increased by 8,292.44%
1 Week
6,487.48%
increased by 5,984.24%
1 Month
3,731.98%
increased by 3,228.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0723 | 1.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.5176 | 3.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0144 | 0.28 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6941 | 1.30 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 6.85*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.597
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0723 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5176 | 3.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0144 | 0.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6941 | 1.30 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 6.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.597
Half-life:
1 days
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