V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.96%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
20.04%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
20.23%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 391% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 391% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0285 | 3.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7951 | 33.51*** |
| γleverage | 0.1115 | 6.46*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0288 | 1.53 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0967 | 2.00** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8856 | 15.43*** |
0.879
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0285 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 33.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1115 | 6.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0288 | 1.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0967 | 2.00** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8856 | 15.43*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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