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V-Lab

CID Holdco Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

342.74%

decreased by 13.08%

1 Week

355.84%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

407.12%

increased by 51.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of CID Holdco Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0173
0.40
βGARCH0.8828
28.69***
γleverage0.1730
1.51
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.48
λ₂forecast adj.0.0320
0.36
λ₃tau persistence0.9681
15.72***

0.987

Persistence

51d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0173
0.40
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8828
28.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1730
1.51
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.48
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0320
0.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9681
15.72***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days