V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
80.98%
increased by 7.77%
1 Week
85,296,849.18%
increased by 85,296,775.97%
1 Month
1,277,840,365,616,926,300,000,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 1,277,840,365,616,926,300,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.77 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1859 | 3.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4767 | 3.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.093
Half-life:
0 days
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