V-Lab
CID Holdco Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
238.10%
decreased by 6.25%
1 Week
237.76%
decreased by 6.59%
1 Month
236.63%
decreased by 7.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0194 | 0.44 |
| βGARCH | 0.8116 | 46.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.2845 | 3.22*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 212.7449 |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 0.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8116 | 46.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2845 | 3.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 212.7449 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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