CID Holdco Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
307.90%
decreased by 8.88%
1 Week
323.10%
increased by 6.32%
1 Month
368.90%
increased by 52.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0173 | 0.40 |
| βGARCH | 0.8828 | 28.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1730 | 1.51 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0320 | 0.36 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9681 | 15.72*** |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0173 | 0.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 28.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1730 | 1.51 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0320 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9681 | 15.72*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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