V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
236.01%
1 Week
250.70%
1 Month
381.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5038 | 70.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2370 | 76.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 27.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.68 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0314 | 0.54 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9686 | 9.94*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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