V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
89.77%
1 Week
109.88%
1 Month
210.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 96.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7282 | 229.49*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -101.50*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.99 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1232 | 1.05 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8768 | 6.24*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 96.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7282 | 229.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -101.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1232 | 1.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8768 | 6.24*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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