News Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
22.74%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
24.62%
increased by 1.45%
1 Month
26.74%
increased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 103% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0869 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6463 | 8.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0895 | 2.09** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.2039 | 2.07** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6222 | 2.23** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.778
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6463 | 8.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0895 | 2.09** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.2039 | 2.07** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6222 | 2.23** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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