News Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
23.87%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
25.17%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
26.61%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 95% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 95% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0950 | 3.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6676 | 8.57*** |
| γleverage | 0.0899 | 2.13** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0612 | 1.16 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0336 | 1.43 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9474 | 25.45*** |
0.808
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6676 | 8.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0899 | 2.13** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0612 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0336 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9474 | 25.45*** |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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