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PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

78.51%

decreased by 31.74%

1 Week

75.26%

decreased by 34.99%

1 Month

73.93%

decreased by 36.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 25, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 237% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 237% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.3813
3.94***
βGARCH0.2614
2.35**
γleverage-0.2680
-2.62***
λ₁tau intercept4.0966
2.05**
λ₂forecast adj.0.8394
8.08***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.509

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3813
3.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2614
2.35**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2680
-2.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.0966
2.05**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8394
8.08***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.509

Half-life:

1 days