V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
61.04%
1 Week
64.49%
1 Month
66.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 205% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.3497 | 3.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3230 | 2.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.2352 | -2.40** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 4.1041 | 2.03** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8275 | 7.91*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.555
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3497 | 3.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3230 | 2.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2352 | -2.40** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.1041 | 2.03** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8275 | 7.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.555
Half-life:
1 days
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