V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
52.64%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Week
54.17%
decreased by 2.13%
1 Month
54.75%
decreased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5527 | 4.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.2075 | 3.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2070 | 1.60 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.4196 | -3.40*** |
| γ2 | 12.4143 | 3.92*** |
| γ3 | -9.3966 | -4.54*** |
| γ4 | 8.2685 | 3.90*** |
| γ5 | -7.4207 | -3.33*** |
| γ6 | 4.2887 | 2.18** |
| γ7 | 1.8016 | 1.10 |
| γ8 | -4.9282 | -2.88*** |
| γ9 | 3.7493 | 1.45 |
0.415
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5527 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2075 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2070 | 1.60 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.4196 | -3.40*** |
| γ2 | 12.4143 | 3.92*** |
| γ3 | -9.3966 | -4.54*** |
| γ4 | 8.2685 | 3.90*** |
| γ5 | -7.4207 | -3.33*** |
| γ6 | 4.2887 | 2.18** |
| γ7 | 1.8016 | 1.10 |
| γ8 | -4.9282 | -2.88*** |
| γ9 | 3.7493 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.415
Half-life:
1 days
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