V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
61.61%
decreased by 17.28%
1 Week
62.91%
decreased by 15.98%
1 Month
63.36%
decreased by 15.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5607 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.2110 | 3.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1564 | 1.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -6.9179 | -3.31*** |
| γ2 | 11.6068 | 3.80*** |
| γ3 | -8.9406 | -4.49*** |
| γ4 | 8.1729 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -7.8824 | -3.69*** |
| γ6 | 5.5268 | 2.87*** |
| γ7 | 0.0489 | 0.03 |
| γ8 | -3.1274 | -2.39** |
| γ9 | 1.8164 | 1.93* |
0.367
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5607 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2110 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1564 | 1.28 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -6.9179 | -3.31*** |
| γ2 | 11.6068 | 3.80*** |
| γ3 | -8.9406 | -4.49*** |
| γ4 | 8.1729 | 4.03*** |
| γ5 | -7.8824 | -3.69*** |
| γ6 | 5.5268 | 2.87*** |
| γ7 | 0.0489 | 0.03 |
| γ8 | -3.1274 | -2.39** |
| γ9 | 1.8164 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.367
Half-life:
1 days
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