V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
56.43%
decreased by 4.66%
1 Week
57.68%
decreased by 3.41%
1 Month
58.16%
decreased by 2.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5551 | 4.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.2048 | 3.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2131 | 1.62 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.1975 | -3.33*** |
| γ2 | 12.0387 | 3.83*** |
| γ3 | -9.1552 | -4.50*** |
| γ4 | 8.1950 | 3.93*** |
| γ5 | -7.6296 | -3.47*** |
| γ6 | 4.8841 | 2.50** |
| γ7 | 0.9668 | 0.62 |
| γ8 | -4.0890 | -3.06*** |
| γ9 | 2.5479 | 2.68*** |
0.418
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5551 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2048 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2131 | 1.62 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.1975 | -3.33*** |
| γ2 | 12.0387 | 3.83*** |
| γ3 | -9.1552 | -4.50*** |
| γ4 | 8.1950 | 3.93*** |
| γ5 | -7.6296 | -3.47*** |
| γ6 | 4.8841 | 2.50** |
| γ7 | 0.9668 | 0.62 |
| γ8 | -4.0890 | -3.06*** |
| γ9 | 2.5479 | 2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.418
Half-life:
1 days
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