PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
64.42%
decreased by 3.98%
1 Week
67.49%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
68.58%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5706 | 4.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.2030 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1897 | 1.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -6.5570 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 11.0498 | 3.67*** |
| γ3 | -8.6226 | -4.46*** |
| γ4 | 8.0472 | 4.10*** |
| γ5 | -8.1444 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 6.4380 | 3.36*** |
| γ7 | -1.3312 | -0.86 |
| γ8 | -1.8239 | -1.42 |
| γ9 | 1.0123 | 1.08 |
0.393
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5706 | 4.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2030 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1897 | 1.49 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -6.5570 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 11.0498 | 3.67*** |
| γ3 | -8.6226 | -4.46*** |
| γ4 | 8.0472 | 4.10*** |
| γ5 | -8.1444 | -3.91*** |
| γ6 | 6.4380 | 3.36*** |
| γ7 | -1.3312 | -0.86 |
| γ8 | -1.8239 | -1.42 |
| γ9 | 1.0123 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.393
Half-life:
1 days
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