V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
73.14%
increased by 20.23%
1 Week
65.35%
increased by 12.44%
1 Month
62.12%
increased by 9.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5440 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2091 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2003 | 1.53 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.8032 | -3.46*** |
| γ2 | 12.9803 | 3.98*** |
| γ3 | -9.6016 | -4.45*** |
| γ4 | 8.0679 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -6.5316 | -2.90*** |
| γ6 | 2.5724 | 1.32 |
| γ7 | 3.5613 | 2.10** |
| γ8 | -5.4778 | -3.43*** |
| γ9 | 2.7074 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.409
Half-life:
1 days
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