V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
53.46%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
56.99%
increased by 4.31%
1 Month
58.32%
increased by 5.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5535 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2139 | 1.65* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -7.4661 | -3.36*** |
| γ2 | 12.4649 | 3.87*** |
| γ3 | -9.3579 | -4.44*** |
| γ4 | 8.1117 | 3.76*** |
| γ5 | -7.0614 | -3.14*** |
| γ6 | 3.6870 | 1.87* |
| γ7 | 2.3626 | 1.46 |
| γ8 | -4.9372 | -3.39*** |
| γ9 | 2.7479 | 2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.424
Half-life:
1 days
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