PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
89.58%
decreased by 6.56%
1 Week
87.65%
decreased by 8.49%
1 Month
82.70%
decreased by 13.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.09 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 23.8319 | 1.24 |
| αscore | 0.1017 | 2.24** |
| βpersistence | 0.9226 | 12.87*** |
| νDF | 4.0929 | 0.94 |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 23.8319 | 1.24 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1017 | 2.24** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9226 | 12.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0929 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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