V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
91.21%
decreased by 9.69%
1 Week
89.29%
decreased by 11.61%
1 Month
84.68%
decreased by 16.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 3.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 24.5702 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.1212 | 2.28** |
| βGARCH | 0.9113 | 10.69*** |
| νDF | 3.7113 | 1.19 |
0.911
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.5702 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1212 | 2.28** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 10.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7113 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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