V-Lab
PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
81.10%
1 Week
81.06%
1 Month
80.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 25, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 70% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2161 | 11.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6404 | 22.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2523 | -5.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0302 | 7.71*** |
Persistence:
0.813
Half-life:
3 days
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