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V-Lab

PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

81.10%

increased by 15.12%

1 Week

81.06%

increased by 15.08%

1 Month

80.99%

increased by 15.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of PMV Pharmaceuticals Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 25, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 70% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2161
11.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6404
22.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2523
-5.68***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0302
7.71***

Persistence:

0.813

Half-life:

3 days