V-Lab
RTX Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
27.13%
1 Week
27.29%
1 Month
27.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0320 | 6.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0630 | 8.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9321 | 132.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.7704 | 6.07*** |
| δpower | 1.1588 | 9.93*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0320 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0630 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9321 | 132.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7704 | 6.07*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1588 | 9.93*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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