V-Lab
RTX Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.88%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
28.01%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
28.51%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0319 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0630 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9322 | 132.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7750 | 6.08*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1558 | 9.94*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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