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Mondelez International Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

21.35%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

21.48%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

21.85%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mondelez International Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 243% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 243% more than positive returnsδ = 1.08 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0849
4.42***
αARCH0.0899
5.75***
βGARCH0.8690
40.21***
γleverage0.5138
4.57***
δpower1.0850
5.81***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0849
4.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8690
40.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5138
4.57***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0850
5.81***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days