V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.35%
1 Week
21.48%
1 Month
21.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 243% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0849 | 4.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0899 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8690 | 40.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.5138 | 4.57*** |
| δpower | 1.0850 | 5.81*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0849 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8690 | 40.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5138 | 4.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0850 | 5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other Mondelez International Inc Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equities