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V-Lab

Mondelez International Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

20.24%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Week

20.50%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

21.22%

decreased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Mondelez International Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 248% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0852
17.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0901
23.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8686
160.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5187
18.36***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0841
23.25***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days