V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.24%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
20.50%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
21.22%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 248% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.08 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0852 | 17.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 23.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8686 | 160.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5187 | 18.36*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0841 | 23.25*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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