V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.12%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
18.54%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
19.61%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1256 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0231 | 2.53** |
| βGARCH | 0.8456 | 38.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.1211 | 3.27*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1256 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0231 | 2.53** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8456 | 38.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1211 | 3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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