Mondelez International Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
24.25%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
23.86%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
22.85%
decreased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1275 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0245 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8433 | 38.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.1213 | 3.25*** |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1275 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8433 | 38.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1213 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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