V-Lab
Mondelez International Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
20.52%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
21.15%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
22.34%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0141 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7976 | 77.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1430 | 21.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0233 | 1.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0234 | 1.61 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9629 | 39.94*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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