Mondelez International Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.69%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
24.16%
decreased by 2.22%
1 Month
22.88%
decreased by 3.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1198 | 17.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 27.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8163 | 141.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5964 | 16.07*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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