V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
24.91%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
25.14%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
25.94%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0568 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0697 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9139 | 83.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.3054 | 1.65* |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0568 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9139 | 83.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3054 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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