V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.48%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
26.64%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
27.24%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.31) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0569 | 11.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0699 | 30.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 333.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3062 | 6.60*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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