Walt Disney Co/The Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.42%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
25.63%
decreased by 1.59%
1 Month
26.37%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 38% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0627 | 7.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.1410 | 9.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8164 | 75.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0532 | 2.10** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0627 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 9.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8164 | 75.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0532 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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