Applied Materials Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
50.85%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
50.88%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
50.99%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0784 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1141 | 9.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8579 | 111.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0418 | 1.93* |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0784 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 9.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8579 | 111.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0418 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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