CVS Health Corp Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
33.58%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
33.50%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
33.22%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 55% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0472 | 6.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0901 | 8.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8722 | 111.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0496 | 2.62*** |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0472 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8722 | 111.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0496 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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