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V-Lab

CVS Health Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

30.40%

increased by 3.15%

1 Week

30.39%

increased by 3.14%

1 Month

30.34%

increased by 3.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CVS Health Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4603
4.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0439
37.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9928
561.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5060
10.32***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days