V-Lab
CVS Health Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.47%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
28.56%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
28.88%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0344 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0466 | 5.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9457 | 87.64*** |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0344 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0466 | 5.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9457 | 87.64*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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