International Business Machines Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.61%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
28.61%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
28.59%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0361 | 3.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.0453 | 7.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9434 | 118.98*** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0361 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9434 | 118.98*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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