V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
39.27%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
39.08%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
38.36%
decreased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0336 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0436 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9460 | 120.68*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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