V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.12%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
33.44%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
34.32%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7241 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0795 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8628 | 38.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0532 | -1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0956 | 1.84* |
| γ3 | -0.1360 | -3.53*** |
| γ4 | 0.1619 | 4.16*** |
| γ5 | -0.0805 | -1.99** |
| γ6 | 0.0209 | 0.46 |
| γ7 | -0.0113 | -0.22 |
| γ8 | 0.0185 | 0.35 |
| γ9 | -0.0348 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other International Business Machines Corp Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities