V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
77.82%
decreased by 3.11%
1 Week
74.97%
decreased by 5.96%
1 Month
65.90%
decreased by 15.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7339 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8784 | 35.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0501 | -1.35 |
| γ2 | 0.0910 | 1.67* |
| γ3 | -0.1330 | -3.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.1579 | 3.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.0754 | -1.75* |
| γ6 | 0.0172 | 0.36 |
| γ7 | -0.0115 | -0.22 |
| γ8 | 0.0222 | 0.40 |
| γ9 | -0.0388 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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