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V-Lab

International Business Machines Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

33.12%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

33.44%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

34.32%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7241
6.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0795
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8628
38.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0532
-1.49
γ20.0956
1.84*
γ3-0.1360
-3.53***
γ40.1619
4.16***
γ5-0.0805
-1.99**
γ60.0209
0.46
γ7-0.0113
-0.22
γ80.0185
0.35
γ9-0.0348
-0.82

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days