V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
52.36%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
58.05%
increased by 5.90%
1 Month
59.51%
increased by 7.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4111 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.2457 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -152.3432 | -2.04** |
| γ2 | 194.8567 | 1.56 |
| γ3 | -11.4371 | -0.12 |
| γ4 | -94.8704 | -1.02 |
| γ5 | 78.6601 | 0.94 |
| γ6 | 28.4005 | 0.48 |
| γ7 | -86.2161 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 59.7796 | 1.72* |
0.246
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4111 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2457 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -152.3432 | -2.04** |
| γ2 | 194.8567 | 1.56 |
| γ3 | -11.4371 | -0.12 |
| γ4 | -94.8704 | -1.02 |
| γ5 | 78.6601 | 0.94 |
| γ6 | 28.4005 | 0.48 |
| γ7 | -86.2161 | -1.86* |
| γ8 | 59.7796 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.246
Half-life:
0 days
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