V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
80.49%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
89.51%
increased by 9.02%
1 Month
91.86%
increased by 11.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2536 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2537 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -280.7622 | -1.62 |
| γ2 | 359.4184 | 1.37 |
| γ3 | -109.6595 | -0.82 |
| γ4 | 114.5230 | 1.58 |
| γ5 | -206.3952 | -1.73* |
| γ6 | 159.1010 | 1.09 |
| γ7 | 5.1363 | 0.05 |
| γ8 | -55.8654 | -0.64 |
| γ9 | 11.6594 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.254
Half-life:
1 days
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