V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
41.12%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
45.52%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
46.63%
increased by 5.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4638 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.2335 | 2.35** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -132.7414 | -2.20** |
| γ2 | 174.6513 | 1.73* |
| γ3 | -17.4201 | -0.23 |
| γ4 | -91.0736 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 103.9481 | 1.51 |
| γ6 | -17.9687 | -0.34 |
| γ7 | -58.5916 | -1.54 |
| γ8 | 60.3117 | 2.23** |
0.234
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4638 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2335 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -132.7414 | -2.20** |
| γ2 | 174.6513 | 1.73* |
| γ3 | -17.4201 | -0.23 |
| γ4 | -91.0736 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 103.9481 | 1.51 |
| γ6 | -17.9687 | -0.34 |
| γ7 | -58.5916 | -1.54 |
| γ8 | 60.3117 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
0.234
Half-life:
0 days
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