V-Lab
VenHub Global Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
102.37%
increased by 26.97%
1 Week
93.72%
increased by 18.32%
1 Month
89.89%
increased by 14.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0903 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.3010 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.1423 | 0.51 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 5.8234 | 4.45*** |
0.443
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0903 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3010 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1423 | 0.51 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 5.8234 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.443
Half-life:
1 days
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