V-Lab
Altria Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.04%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
25.11%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
25.30%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0485 | 8.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0812 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8691 | 40.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0182 | 1.66* |
| γ2 | -0.0502 | -2.96*** |
| γ3 | 0.0560 | 4.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.0241 | -2.47** |
| γ5 | -0.0044 | -0.67 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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