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V-Lab

Altria Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

21.37%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

21.84%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

23.17%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Altria Group Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0499
7.96***
αARCH0.0814
6.49***
βGARCH0.8695
41.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0179
1.64
γ2-0.0496
-2.94***
γ30.0558
4.82***
γ4-0.0245
-2.51**
γ5-0.0041
-0.62

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0499
7.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0814
6.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8695
41.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0179
1.64
γ2-0.0496
-2.94***
γ30.0558
4.82***
γ4-0.0245
-2.51**
γ5-0.0041
-0.62

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days