V-Lab
Altria Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
32.97%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
32.39%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
30.65%
decreased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0453 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 6.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8707 | 41.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0178 | 1.61 |
| γ2 | -0.0495 | -2.91*** |
| γ3 | 0.0556 | 4.74*** |
| γ4 | -0.0237 | -2.40** |
| γ5 | -0.0048 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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