V-Lab
Altria Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.79%
1 Week
25.44%
1 Month
21.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 20% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0395 | 4.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1862 | 12.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8044 | 49.00*** |
| γleverage | 0.1100 | 4.12*** |
| δpower | 0.8104 | 4.19*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0395 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1862 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8044 | 49.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 4.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8104 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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