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V-Lab
V-Lab

Altria Group Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

27.60%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

27.66%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

27.90%

decreased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Altria Group Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0189
1.91*
αARCH0.0659
9.24***
βGARCH0.9219
108.19***
γleverage0.6198
4.53***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0189
1.91*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0659
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9219
108.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6198
4.53***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days