V-Lab
Altria Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.01%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
25.78%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
26.82%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 89% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0890 | 11.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6780 | 37.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0790 | 7.05*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0110 | 1.90* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0280 | 2.78*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9683 | 88.01*** |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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