V-Lab
Altria Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.66%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
28.58%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
30.36%
increased by 3.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0911 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6808 | 11.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0741 | 1.82* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0108 | 1.96* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0277 | 3.02*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9687 | 98.03*** |
0.809
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6808 | 11.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0741 | 1.82* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0108 | 1.96* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0277 | 3.02*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9687 | 98.03*** |
Persistence:
0.809
Half-life:
3 days
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