V-Lab
Wealthfront Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.55%
decreased by 7.96%
1 Week
9.35%
decreased by 11.16%
1 Month
6.38%
decreased by 14.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0240 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3407 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3939 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0825 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0038 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0075 |
Persistence:
0.562
Half-life:
1 days
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