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V-Lab

Wealthfront Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

22.36%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

22.90%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

25.49%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Wealthfront Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.0000
0.02
βGARCH0.9520
1,786.05***
γleverage0.0861
52.63***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.02
λ₂forecast adj.0.0213
3.50***
λ₃tau persistence0.0008
4.22***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9520
1,786.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0861
52.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0213
3.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0008
4.22***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days