V-Lab
Wealthfront Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.98%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
33.30%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
28.93%
decreased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.0386 | 0.43 |
| γleverage | 0.0053 | 2.03** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0291 | 8.34*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9104 | 87.23*** |
0.041
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0386 | 0.43 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0053 | 2.03** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0291 | 8.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9104 | 87.23*** |
Persistence:
0.041
Half-life:
0 days
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